Israel-Iran Conflict

 

Oil Market Tipping Point?

In Favor (Price Surge Likely):

  • Brent already hit $78.5/bbl amid supply fears

  • Iran’s oil exports (3.3mb/d) are at risk from infrastructure or power grid damage

  • 80% of Iran’s power comes from gas—disruptions could force oil diversion for domestic use

  • Strait of Hormuz handles 17mb/d—any escalation here is a major risk

Against (Price Surge Limited):

  • No fresh long buying yet; rally driven by shorts exiting

  • Iran’s proxy weakness and high operational risk may limit retaliation

  • Without new disruptions, prices may struggle to hold gains

Full insight via Lean Research Energy & Macro


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