The Nuclear Fuel Cycle

Supply Bottlenecks, Market Dynamics & Investment Signals

The nuclear fuel cycle forms the backbone of nuclear power—encompassing uranium mining, enrichment, fuel fabrication, reactor operation, and spent fuel management. As global energy priorities shift toward low-carbon solutions, nuclear energy is resurging, bringing renewed investor focus on upstream constraints and long-term fuel economics.

At the core lies uranium, a commodity with production dominated by a few countries—Kazakhstan alone accounts for 40%. Most uranium is extracted through cost-efficient in-situ recovery, but capacity expansion is slow, and geopolitical concentration introduces serious supply chain risk.

Yet uranium mining is only one part of the equation. The conversion of U3O8 into UF6, enrichment (especially for HALEU used in SMRs), and fuel fabrication each face structural bottlenecks. The supply base is narrow, regulatory burdens are high, and technological capacity—particularly for advanced fuels like TRISO—is not yet scaled.

Meanwhile, global reactor growth is accelerating. Over 60 reactors are under construction, and countries like China aim to add 150+ reactors by 2040. Fuel demand is expected to grow from ~180 million lbs U3O8 in 2024 to 320+ million lbs, by 2045.

Investment Watchpoints:

  • Enrichment capacity, especially HALEU, remains limited

  • Spot markets are illiquid and volatile—long-term contracts dominate pricing

  • Regulatory delays and geopolitical shifts can reshape supply overnight

This blog draws insights from our longer research piece on the uranium supply chain. View the full report at: Lean Research – Nuclear & Energy Strategy

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